Hopes for peace deal fade as US and Iran exchange fire again

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Iran and the US have continued to insist on fundamentally diverging versions of any final deal to end the ongoing war, as both sides reportedly exchanged strikes in the Persian Gulf for the second time in three days and Washington sanctioned Tehran’s new Hormuz transit authority.

The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control placed the Persian Gulf Strait Authority on its sanctions list on Wednesday, saying it was “a new attempt by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to monetise its campaign of state-sponsored terror by extorting vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”

Treasury said the PGSA “spearheads an Iranian-controlled scheme that flagrantly violates international law and US sanctions,” and warned that any payment to the body for passage through the strait could expose individuals and companies to sanctions.

Iranian officials had previously spoken publicly about a fee of $2 million (€1.7m) per vessel.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War think tank (ISW) said senior Iranian officials were framing control over the strait as a strategic necessity and a core element of deterrence against the US and Israel.

The ISW noted that any arrangement requiring maritime traffic to pass through an Iranian-approved traffic separation scheme would directly contradict the US demand for freedom of navigation and establish a dangerous precedent for international waterways.

Asked whether he would accept a short-term arrangement under which Iran and Oman controlled the waterway, US President Donald Trump said that “the strait is going to be open to everybody. It’s international waters. We’ll watch over it, but nobody’s going to control it.”

“Oman will behave like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that.”

The White House denied the existence of a draft agreement published by Iranian state television regarding the negotiations, calling it “a complete fabrication”.

Conflicting accounts of the draft’s contents display continued disagreements on key issues, according to ISW.

“Iran’s proposed sequencing of concessions would require the United States to surrender key sources of leverage before negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program begin, which would significantly reduce US leverage in any future nuclear negotiations,” the think tank said.

Both sides trade strikes

Meanwhile, US CENTCOM said it had targeted four Iranian drones described as a threat to the strait and destroyed a drone control station in Bandar Abbas that was attempting to launch a fifth.

The IRGC disputed the account, saying the US had struck “scorched earth” near Bandar Abbas airport and claiming it had retaliated at 4:50 am by targeting the American airbase from which the attack originated, describing the response as “a serious warning”.

The IRGC said any further US strikes would be met with a “more decisive” response and placed the responsibility for consequences on Washington.

The IRGC also released footage of an overnight missile launch featuring anti-US imagery on its rockets, including an English-language slogan, “With the weapon of faith … we push our enemy back and humiliate them”.

It did not identify the airbase it said it had targeted, however Kuwaiti media reported sirens in the country during the early hours of Thursday morning.

It remains unclear whether the alert was related to any threats coming from Iran or one of its proxies in the wider region.

The IRGC also claimed it had attacked a US oil tanker attempting to pass through the strait with its radar switched off. CENTCOM did not confirm that claim.

Tehran’s claims could not be independently confirmed.

Earlier in the week, five Gulf states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — formally warned shipping companies through the International Maritime Organisation not to comply with PGSA regulations, after Iran published a map claiming regulatory control over a stretch of the strait that extended into the territorial waters of the UAE and Oman.

ISW said that Iranian media outlet Nour News had published an opinion piece arguing that Iran must convert its recent “military victory” into broader political success — showing a belief within the regime that it came out of the war in a position of strength.

“Iran’s maximalist and uncompromising negotiating positions reflect the Iranian regime’s effort to translate its perceived success in the war into long-term strategic and political gains,” the think tank said in its analysis on Thursday.

Separately, an Israeli open-source intelligence analyst published satellite imagery showing Iranian reconstitution efforts at the Yazd Missile Base in Yazd Province since the ceasefire took effect in April.

ISW said the imagery corroborated its assessment that Iran was exploiting the ceasefire period to rebuild its military capabilities.

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed to international shipping since the war began on 28 February.

Under normal conditions, approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and a significant volume of non-oil goods pass through the waterway daily. Its closure has pushed energy prices sharply higher and disrupted global supply chains.